2040
Mediterranean Energy
Scenario Report

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Foreword

As part of the TEASIMED 2 project, we are pleased to publish this Scenario Report, which outlines the prospects for the evolution of electricity power systems in all Mediterranean countries by 2040. For this new edition, following the 2022 publication’ of the Mediterranean Master Plan, our members and experts from the Technical Committees have focused on two major challenges for the region in the coming years to 2040: the development of electric mobility and the emergence of massive hydrogen production from renewable electricity sources (‘green hydrogen’), which has significant potential throughout the Middle East, North Africa, and Türkiye (MENAT). The development of these scenarios is a prerequisite for studying and analysing new interconnection projects, which will be covered in two separate publications: the update of the Mediterranean Master Plan for 2030 and the publication of the new Mediterranean Electricity Interconnection Perspectives (MEIP) for 2040. This Scenario Report covers both timeframes and sets the framework for both publications.

GLOSSARY

CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

CO2: Carbon dioxide

EENS: Expected Energy Not Supplied

ENTSO-E: European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity

EV: Electric Vehicle

GDP: Gross Domestic Product

H2: Hydrogen

HDEV: Heavy Duty Electric Vehicle

IN: Inertial scenario

IRENA: International Renewable Energy Agency

MA: Mediterranean Ambition scenario

Med-TSO: Association of the Mediterranean Transmission System Operators (TSOs)

MEIP: Mediterranean Electricity Interconnection Perspectives

MENAT: Middle East, North Africa, and Türkiye

NDC: Nationally Determined Contribution

NECP: National Energy and Climate Plan

OCGT: Open-Cycle Gas Turbine

P2G Power-to-Gas

P2H2: Power to Hydrogen

PR: Proactive scenario

Prosumer: Energy producer and consumer

RES: Renewable Energy Sources

RFNBO: Renewable liquid and gaseous transport Fuels of Non-Biological Origin

TEASIMED 2: Towards an Efficient, Adequate, Sustainable and Interconnected MEDiterranean power system

ToU: Time-of-Use tariff

TSO: Transmission System Operator

TYNDP: Ten-Year Network Development Plan

EU: European Union